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Pre-match trading is the betting exchange strategy most sought after by users, as if executed well it allows you to make a profit before the match starts. This is why everyone is looking for a system that allows them to find when to enter the odds to take advantage of a drop in the odds.
With draw balance, the proprietary indicator contained within scoretrend's asianodds this desire has become a reality. The draw balance allows one to enter pre-match trading on the draw before the odds start to fall. All the user has to do is check the draw balance a few days beforehand and position himself on the book of his chosen betting exchange platform. Nice, isn't it?
What is Pre-match Trading
Pre-match trading consists of placing a bet on a betting exchange market by waiting for the odds to drop before the sporting event begins. If you have placed a bet and the odds fall, you go to cash out. In this way you have a mathematical profit regardless of the final outcome. Pre-match trading is not subject to the emotionality of live trading and is a more relaxed and less stressful form of sports investing.
In this strategy one must follow the trend of the odds over time every few hours and adjust the position incrementally. This means that the trader has to place a bet on the book from where the executed trades are concentrated and a kind of resistance is created.
With experience one has to understand for that particular match and league how far one can move the odds.
Why pre-match trading on the draw?
Pre-match trading on the draw is recommended for several reasons of an operational nature and how the odds work. Pre-match trading on the home and/or away win is subject to the considerable fluctuation of the odds, which can be due to important information about both teams. This information is not easily predictable by the average user who does not know where the odds may lie. As a result, if one makes a mistake in betting or banking on a home team win, the odds can go up or down considerably with no possibility of 'going back'.
The odds on the draw, on the other hand, are more stable and 'tend' to go down as time goes on. As soon as the match starts under normal conditions, the draw odds begin to fall as time passes, eventually giving this possibility to exit. Classic pre-match trading contemplates a strict exit before the match starts.
Pre-match trading on the draw is consequently significantly easier because
- the draw odds tend to move in a very narrow range
- tend to fall as a function of time
- have a lot of liquidity and executed trades
When to watch the draw balance
You have to watch the draw balance generally 3 or 4 days before the start of the match to take advantage of the odds movement from the beginning. Generally the main movement of the odds is made a few days before the start of the sporting event and especially the day before and on the day itself. To use this indicator you have to go to asianodds.scoretrend.net and analyse the indicator on the main screen or in the Betting TAB under DB Tip.
For example if today was Tuesday I would have to move to the calendar and go and look at Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The more experienced might also look at the next day's but it depends on the match and the movement of the odds already made.
The indications in this article serve as a starting point but of course you have to gain experience and knowledge of the movement of the odds.
What draw balance to tip the draw
For pre-match draw trading, the draw balance must have a negative value on two bookmakers in particular. If the negative value is recorded on all bookmakers then the signal is even stronger. It is important to have the negative value like -2% down on Pinnacle (reference) and Bet365..Intermediate cases so slightly negative only on one bookmaker should be evaluated at the moment according to the league and the match under consideration.
Above all, the top leagues should be chosen where there is a tight tip-bank spread and there is liquidity in the market. It is crucial to check that there is liquidity traded Secondary leagues are prone to low liquidity, accentuated spreads and the inexperienced could bet at the wrong odds.
The entry odds for betting on a draw should be in the range of 3.20 and 5.40 maximum. The reason is that a lower price cannot go down many more ticks before the match starts and the risk is not worth it. If too high, it is probably a match with a clear favourite and few are willing to bet on a draw. The odds mentioned are the optimal value, but this has to be evaluated according to the league and the match. In several cases one could also bet at slightly lower odds and bank heavily for 1 or 2 ticks of profit.
Once the match has been identified, one must place on the book either at the same odds as the last trades or 1-2 or 3 ticks above in bets. You can make one or more entries at the same stake or use the pyramiding technique. This means that you can place one tick above with a 100 euro stake and two ticks more above with 300 euro and so on and up. With this methodology you can take advantage of a possible descent of a few ticks by entering more heavily above. You enter with more stakes at better odds.
Which stake to use for pre-match trading
Being pre-match trading, one can enter with a stake significantly higher than one's stake calculated with the money management rules. Generally in sports trading you have to trade with a stake of 1 to 2% of your account. In this case, operating in pre-match with draw odds that move in a limited range, it is possible to enter a bet with a maximum of 10-20% of your capital. Before entering with these percentages, it is necessary to gain some experience and to close strictly pre-match. If you are on the wrong side and it can sometimes happen you must have the strength to red up without thinking about it.
Pre-match trading allows you to enter with high stakes precisely because all the trading must be done before the market starts and you go into the 'risk phase'. If you enter with limited stakes, the profit will be minimal and this strategy is obviously not profitable.
Profit in pre-match trading
The profit you can make in pre-match trading is not constant or fixed in advance but depends on several variables
- the type of match chosen
- the exchange used and consequently the actual liquidity in the books;
- the odds at which you enter the draw
- by how many trades are made during pre-match trading and the time spent
In some matches where news arrives in the last few days, for example due to the absence of an important player or the defeat in the cup round, the odds can have a movement of a few ticks larger than average. The entry odds and the type of trade plays a primary role on the profit to be made. If, for example, I only place a couple of bets on Tuesday and on Saturday two hours before the start of the match I check, the profit will be limited. If, on the other hand, I check every 5-6 hours and close in on a bet when it makes a good downward movement and re-enter with more stakes the profit can be greatly increased.
One can expect profit percentages from 1 to 10%. As explained if you are very much on the money the profit can be significantly higher. Only experience and available capital can increase the percentages considerably.
Pre-match trading
For the best returns, one must manage one's operations during the days leading up to the match. One must start placing bets about 3-4 or 5 days in advance. Regularly every few hours you have to look at whether your position has been executed and how the odds are moving. If for example you are executed and the market drops several ticks you could place a bet and then reposition 2 or 3 ticks above. The odds of the draw can move in a narrow range and consequently you can enter another time increasing your profits. In some cases, e.g. important matches, the draw might move just one tick and consequently you can repeat the operation many times in bet and banked.
As has been said many times, one has to look at the match in question and with a little experience everything will become mechanical and simple. The basic concept is that the draw balance allows you to find the odds that have to go down with very good probability.
Video guide pre-match trading step by step
To get a good understanding of how pre-match draw balance trading works, we made a step-by-step video guide explaining everything you need to know. You can find several videos on my youtube channel Gianluca Landi.
Below is the full video guide
- Category: Betting Exchange Strategies
